The market “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?” saw a sharp increase in its YES contract price, rising 26.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours to reach 75.0%, up from approximately 49.0% a day earlier. This notable repricing reflects a significant shift in sentiment among traders on Polymarket as of the snapshot date, 2026-07-18.
Whale activity aligned with the price movement, indicating that large investors supported the upward momentum by adding net capital into the YES side. The presence of this flow alignment suggests that the price jump was not driven by retail speculation alone, but was backed by substantial betting volume from high-net-worth participants.
Trading volume over the 24-hour window totaled $14K, underscoring moderate market engagement around this geopolitical event. The combined increase in price and whale flow points to growing confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will hold through July 25. This convergence of price action and large-scale bets sharpens the market’s signal, implying a stronger consensus forming around this outcome.
Overall, the 26pp surge coupled with confirmed whale backing elevates the market’s conviction, making the ceasefire continuation a key focus for prediction market participants in the current geopolitical landscape.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952472 |
| 24h price change | +26.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 75.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.