The market on whether NVIDIA will be the second-largest company by market cap on July 31 saw a sharp rise in YES contract price, climbing 16.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 38.5%, up from an estimated 22.0% a day earlier.
This price move coincided with whale activity that aligned with the trend, as 38 unique whales contributed a net $2K inflow into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $10K against $8K in sells, indicating a slight accumulation bias amid $13K total 24-hour volume on Polymarket.
With a lifetime market volume of $123K and 216 unique traders participating, this surge in odds and corresponding whale flow suggests growing conviction or new information influencing expectations around NVIDIA’s market cap ranking by the end of July.
The combined price and whale trade data reflect a coordinated shift in sentiment rather than a divergence, signaling that large traders are reinforcing the price rally rather than counteracting it. This synchronization between price and whale flow adds weight to the recent repricing of the market’s probability.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674076 |
| 24h price change | +16.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 38.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 38.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $2K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 38 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 216 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.