Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds drop 20.5pp despite $18K whale buy flow
YES price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply from 68.5% to 48.0% while whales increased exposure by $18K, diverging from price action.
Jul 10
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 24pp despite whale buying on Polymarket
YES contract for Iran military action on July 10 dropped from 27.5% to 3.5% while whales increased exposure.
Jul 10
Breaking
OpenAI GPT model debut odds plunge 78.8 points to 7.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting market signals on GPT model performance by 2026-end.
Jul 10
Breaking
Google Math AI Model Odds Jump 40pp to 58% on Whale Support
Whales contributed $6K net buying as the market sharply repriced Google’s lead in Math AI by July 2026.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mbappé World Cup goal contributions market surges 42pp to 75.5% on Polymarket
Whales aligned with a sharp 42 percentage point jump in odds, driving a $1K net buy into YES in the past 24 hours.
Jul 10
Breaking
YES price on next xAI Grok model debut drops 60.1pp to 8.4% amid divergent whale flow
Whale activity diverged sharply from a 60.1 percentage point plunge in YES price, signaling conflicting signals on xAI’s Grok model performance odds.
Jul 10
Breaking
GPT Model Market Sees 71.2-Point Drop in YES Price Despite Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from falling prices as the predicted GPT debut score market plunged from 86.0% to 14.8% in 24 hours.
Jul 10
Whales
Whales Bet $761K on Spain to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 16.5% Market Price
Large traders have pushed $3.04M into Spain bets over 24 hours, diverging sharply from the market-implied 16.5% probability.
Jul 10
Breaking
Odds for xAI’s next Grok model debuting above 1460 score plunged 56.5pp in 24h
Whale trading diverged from the sharp drop as YES price sank from 68.0% to 11.6% on Polymarket.
Jul 10
Breaking
OpenAI model score market YES price plunges 70.9 pp amid whale flow-price split
YES contract on OpenAI model debut score fell from 81.5% to 10.6% while whales bought $3K into YES, diverging from price action.
Jul 10