The Polymarket market asking whether the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES contract price collapse by 60.1 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 68.5% to 8.4% as of July 10, 2026. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of the model achieving this performance benchmark.
Notably, whale flow diverged from the price move, with large traders not increasing their net exposure to YES contracts despite the sharp decline in odds.
The total 24-hour volume on this market was $10K, indicating moderate trading activity accompanying the price drop. The separation between price action and whale flow highlights an unsettled market consensus about xAI’s next Grok model capabilities, with institutional players potentially betting against the prevailing retail sentiment.
This combined pattern of a steep price decline alongside divergent whale flow signals a complex and possibly contested outlook on the model’s future score, underscoring uncertainty in the prediction market despite the clear drop in implied probability.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +60.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 8.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.