The Polymarket contract “Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?” experienced a dramatic shift in sentiment, with the YES price plunging 71.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours, dropping from 86.0% to 14.8% as of July 10, 2026.
This sharp decline signals a rapid reassessment among traders on the likelihood of the model achieving this benchmark by the end of 2026. Notably, the whale flow diverged from this price move, with significant whale activity netting $0 into YES positions despite the steep price fall. This divergence indicates that large traders maintained or increased their exposure to the YES outcome even as the broader market sharply reduced its probability estimate.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for this contract totaled $6K, reflecting moderate trading interest amid the volatility.
This combined picture of a rapid drop in market-implied probability alongside steady whale support highlights a contested outlook on the next GPT model’s performance milestone. The divergence between price action and whale flow underscores the nuanced views within the Polymarket community on this high-profile AI development question.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2831020 |
| 24h price change | +71.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 14.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 86.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.