Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 38pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite whale activity moving against the decline.
Jul 10
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket Breaking: GPT model debut odds plunge 60pp despite $11K whale bets
Whales bought $11K in YES contracts even as price dropped from 70.0% to 10.0%, signaling a sharp divergence.
Jul 10
Whales
$508K Buy on Belgium at 1.8% Implied Probability Defies World Cup Market Consensus
A wallet with 76.5% accuracy across 654 positions places a $619K wager on low-probability World Cup outcomes, joining strong whale buying in a $126.5M market.
Jul 10
Breaking
OpenAI GPT model 1480+ score odds jump 19.5pp to 54% as whales back YES
Whales contributed $11K net buying alongside a 19.5 percentage point surge in YES price on Polymarket, signaling rising confidence in high GPT model performance by 2026.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 32pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket's market on Iran's July 10 military action dropped from 37.0% to 5.0% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 10
Whales
Whales add $300K to Switzerland win bets despite 1.8% market price
Big-money investors push $300K into yes side on Switzerland winning 2026 World Cup, contrasting with low market odds.
Jul 10
Breaking
19pp Surge in Odds for Next GPT Model Scoring 1480+ by End of 2026
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 19-point increase in the Polymarket YES price, lifting market confidence in OpenAI’s upcoming model.
Jul 10
Breaking
Anthropic Math AI Odds Drop 34.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges from Price Move
YES contract for Anthropic’s top Math AI model claim plunged from 73.5% to 39.0%, while whales increased YES bets by $5K.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 39.6 points despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price while whale flow moved opposite the tape.
Jul 10
Breaking
Polymarket YES Price for BBL Esports Last VCT EMEA Team Surges 40pp to 100%
Whale buying of $705 aligns with sharp odds rise, pushing price from 60% to certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 10