The market on whether Kylian Mbappé will record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup surged 42.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 33.5% to 75.5% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment about Mbappé’s prospects in the tournament.
Whale activity accompanied the price move, with a net flow of $1K into YES contracts. Total whale buy volume reached $3K, while sell volume was $1K, involving 24 unique whale traders. The alignment between whale flow and the price trend suggests that large traders reinforced the market’s bullish adjustment rather than countered it.
Overall 24-hour trading volume was $5K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $24K and involving 227 unique traders. However, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 75.5% notably exceeds the Polydata on-chain mid price of 49.5%, indicating a divergence between the real-time market sentiment and the on-chain aggregated midpoint.
This combined surge in price and supportive whale buying signals a strong consensus emerging among traders that Mbappé will lead in goal contributions at the 2026 World Cup. The market has rapidly shifted from a moderate probability to a dominant one, backed by significant whale involvement, underscoring growing confidence in Mbappé’s tournament impact.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2117909 |
| 24h price change | +42.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 75.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 49.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $3K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 24 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 227 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.