The market “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” experienced a dramatic shift on Polymarket, with the YES contract price soaring 87.8 percentage points from 3.4% to 91.2% within 24 hours. This rapid repricing reflects a significant reassessment of the event’s likelihood by traders.
Whale activity aligned closely with the price move, as 89 unique whales accounted for $19K in buy volume against $7K in sell volume, resulting in a $12K net inflow into YES contracts. This whale-driven momentum supports the market’s sharp upward adjustment.
Overall, the market saw $23K in volume over the past day, contributing to a lifetime volume of $31K among 192 unique traders. The strong participation and whale alignment indicate a broad consensus behind the elevated odds.
The combined surge in price and whale demand signals heightened confidence that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 12, marking a major shift in market sentiment on this geopolitical question.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +87.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 91.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $12K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $19K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 89 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 192 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.