The probability that Pamela Evette will replace Graham as South Carolina Senator dropped sharply by 40.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from 45.5% to 5.1% as of July 13, 2026. This dramatic revaluation occurred despite whale activity diverging from the price move, signaling a disconnect between large traders and the broader market sentiment.
Polymarket recorded $17K in trading volume on this contract during the same period, indicating moderate liquidity amid the price shift. The divergence flagged by on-chain data shows that while the market price slumped substantially, whale flow did not align with this trend, suggesting that major traders did not heavily sell YES shares despite the steep decline in odds.
Overall, the combination of a 40.5pp plunge in YES odds with diverging whale flow points to a significant repricing event shaped by differing trader segments, underscoring volatility in expectations around the South Carolina Senate replacement race.
| Market | Will Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2896160 |
| 24h price change | +40.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 5.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $17K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.