Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 69.5pp to 87.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, pushing the YES contract near certainty.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
“Fed rate hike in 2026?” YES price jumps 17.0 pp to 76.5% on $48K whale inflow
Whales drove a $48K net buy into the YES side as the market surged from 59.5% to 76.5% in 24 hours, signaling stronger conviction on a rate increase in 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Pamela Evette’s Nominee Odds Drop 32pp as Whale Flow Diverges on Polymarket
YES contract price for Evette as South Carolina GOP Senate nominee slumped from 45.5% to 13.5% despite whale activity.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds McConnell steps down before term ends drop 20.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $43K in YES contracts even as market odds fell from 56.0% to 35.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 43 points to 74% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price move as market sharply repriced likelihood of conflict on July 9
Jul 13
Breaking
John Pardon Fields Medal YES price jumps 23pp to 98.5% with $2K whale support
Polymarket’s odds on John Pardon winning the 2026 Fields Medal surged alongside aligned whale buying activity over 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 75pp to 93% on Polymarket
Whale trading and price action moved in tandem, pushing the contract from 18% to 93% in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 35.7 points to 65.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in probability for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 70pp to 88% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem, signaling strong market conviction on a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Bitcoin $65K July Odds Drop 28pp as Whale Flow Diverges from Price
Polymarket’s Bitcoin $65,000 July market saw a sharp 28.0 percentage point fall in YES price despite $26K whale net buying, highlighting a split between large traders and market pricing.
Jul 13