Breaking
Fed rate pause odds drop 15pp to 61.5% despite $1.08M whale bets
Whale buying diverges from falling YES price in Fed rate pause market, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket
Jul 14
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
“Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 52.2 pp to 98.8%
Whale activity and market prices moved in tandem as confidence surged in the Credible public sale surpassing $25M.
Jul 14
Breaking
‘Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?’ YES price jumps 15.5 pp to 89.5%
Whales supported the rally with $10K net buying as 24-hour volume hit $21K on Polymarket.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 53.5 Points as Whales Back YES
Polymarket's odds for military action on July 14 leapt from 36.0% to 89.5% with $4K whale net inflow confirming the sharp repricing.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 16.1 pp to 97.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17.5 pp despite $42K whale buy flow
Polymarket's YES price for a US-Iran meeting by July 31, 2026, fell sharply while whales increased their YES exposure, signaling a market split.
Jul 14
Breaking
“US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” YES price drops 30pp despite whale buy-in
Polymarket’s contract on US sanction relief for Iran fell from 38.0% to 8.0% even as whales increased YES exposure, showing a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?” YES jumps 16.0 pp to 58.5% with $18K whale support
Whales increased exposure to YES as Polymarket odds surged from 42.5% to 58.5%, signaling strong conviction in the market move.
Jul 14
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds plunge 39.5 pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” market sees a sharp price drop while whale flow bucks the trend.
Jul 14
Breaking
UK Foreign Secretary Market Jumps 19pp to 63.5% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 19.0 percentage-point rise in the ‘no next Foreign Secretary’ market, aligning with the tape amid a rare price divergence on-chain.
Jul 14