Breaking
Iran Hormuz fees market jumps 15pp as whales back YES with $20K net flow
Polymarket’s odds for Iran charging Hormuz fees by August 31 rise sharply, driven by aligned whale buying and increased volume.
Jul 14
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
“Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 48pp to 82.5%
Whales added $18K net to YES positions as the market’s odds more than doubled in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
Fed July 2026 rate pause odds drop 15pp despite $1.10M whale buy net
Whales bought $1.10M in YES contracts while Polymarket prices for no Fed rate change after July 2026 meeting fell sharply by 15 percentage points.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 47.5pp to 83.5% on Polymarket amid whale buying
Whales contributed $5K net into YES contracts as market odds more than doubled in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
Fed 25bps Hike Odds Jump 15pp to 37% on Polymarket with Whale Support
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 15.0 pp rise in the probability of a July 2026 rate increase, signaling growing market conviction.
Jul 14
Breaking
John Pardon’s 2026 Fields Medal odds jump 16.4 pp to 97.9% with whale buying
Whales aligned with price, driving $4K net flow into YES as market volume hits $10K in 24 hours
Jul 14
Breaking
Fed rate hike odds jump 15.3pp to 37.2% as whales push YES
Whale buying of $154K aligns with a sharp 15.3pp increase in market-implied probability for a July 2026 Fed rate increase.
Jul 14
Breaking
Pamela Evette’s Senate Nomination Odds Plunge 40pp to 5.5% Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket sees a sharp drop in YES price for Evette with whale trading contradicting the price move, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 14
Breaking
Sabrina Carpenter World Cup Halftime Show YES Price Jumps 26.8pp to 59.6% with Whale Support
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 26.8 percentage point rise in odds for Sabrina Carpenter’s 2026 FIFA World Cup halftime show appearance.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 52.5 pp to 85% as whales back YES
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in Polymarket’s Iran Gulf State conflict market.
Jul 14