Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 South Dakota GOP Primary Win Odds Drop 28.5pp Amid Whale Buying
Whale investors added $4K to YES contracts even as market probability plunged from 40% to 11.5%.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood’s odds as UK Chancellor jump 58.4pp to 86.2% on Polymarket
Whale activity backed the surge with $42K net inflow into YES contracts amid $77K total 24-hour volume.
Jul 15
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 28pp to 54.5% on Polymarket
Whale bets moved in sync with a sharp rise in probability for Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 19.
Jul 15
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro no-release odds jump 47pp to 78.5% as whales back YES
The market for no new Gemini Pro model by July 31, 2026, rallied sharply alongside $6K whale bets affirming the surge.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 53pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 90.0% to 37.0% despite whale buying diverging from price
Jul 15
Breaking
YES price on Shabana Mahmood as UK Chancellor jumps 77.8pp to 88% with $43K whale inflow
Whale buying aligned with sharp market repricing, pushing odds from 10.2% to 88% in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro release odds jump 55pp to 78.5% as whales back no-release
Whales aligned with a sharp 55.0 pp rise in the chance that no next Google Gemini Pro model arrives by July 31, 2026, pushing the market price to 78.5%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf attack odds plunge 50pp as whale flow diverges from price
Price on Iran military action dropped sharply from 90.5% to 40.5% despite whale bets moving against the decline.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price falls 20.5 pp despite whale divergence
Polymarket's contract price dropped from 55.5% to 35.0% in 24 hours while whale activity diverged by not supporting the selloff.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 23pp despite $4K whale bets on YES
Whale activity diverged from price, as market’s YES probability dropped sharply from 27.5% to 4.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15