The market on whether Shabana Mahmood will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026 saw a dramatic rise in its YES price over the past 24 hours, climbing 58.4 percentage points from 27.8% to 86.2%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale investors strongly supported this move, contributing a net flow of $42K into YES contracts. Their total buy volume of $83K outpaced $41K in sell volume, indicating sustained conviction behind the price rally. The alignment of whale flow with the price increase confirms that large traders reinforced the market’s bullish turn rather than opposing it.
Unique whale participation was robust, with 138 distinct whales active in the last 24 hours. The overall Polymarket 24-hour volume for this market stood at $77K, highlighting that the whale activity alone accounted for a substantial portion of the trading. Since inception, the market has seen $212K in total volume from 393 unique traders, underscoring growing engagement in this question.
The combined price surge and whale buying pressure suggest a strong consensus emerging around Mahmood’s prospects as Chancellor. This market momentum reflects a notable recalibration of expectations within Polymarket’s user base, signaling heightened confidence in this outcome ahead of 2026.
| Market | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2632929 |
| 24h price change | +58.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 86.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 27.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 86.2% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $42K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $83K / $41K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 138 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $77K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 393 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.