The Polymarket contract “Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw a sharp 20.5 percentage point decline in its YES price over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 55.5% to 35.0% as of July 15, 2026. This significant repricing occurred despite a divergence in whale flow, with large traders not matching the downward move in the contract’s price.
Contrary to the typical alignment of whale activity with price shifts, the flow divergence flag indicates that whales did not push the YES side lower alongside the broader market. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $23K, reflecting moderate trading amid the price adjustments.
This split between price movement and whale behavior suggests that retail or smaller traders likely drove the selloff, while whales remained neutral or possibly positioned differently. The combined data signals a market reassessment of the likelihood that over $35 million will be committed to the Credible public sale, but with large traders holding back from reinforcing the drop.
The divergence between price and whale flow highlights a nuanced dynamic in the market’s view of the event’s probability, potentially indicating uncertainty or awaiting further information before large traders adjust their positions.
| Market | Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845813 |
| 24h price change | +20.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 35.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 55.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.