Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract slashed YES probability from 91.0% to 44.5%, despite whale trading opposing the price move.
Polymarket's odds for Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 jumped from 16.1% to 87.8%, with $43K whale net inflow confirming the price shift.
Whales have purchased $4.35M in YES shares versus $1.65M sold, signaling divergence from market odds ahead of closure in 5 days.
Whales bought $6K into YES contracts even as market odds dropped sharply from 62.5% to 11.0% in 24 hours.
The market on Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 soared from 15.4% to 84.2% alongside $43K whale net buying, signaling strong conviction.
Whales and overall market moved in tandem as the probability for Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 surged sharply within 24 hours.
Whale buying diverged sharply from a steep 64.5pp drop in the implied probability that there will be no next UK Home Secretary in 2026.
Whales backed the sharp rally with $43K net buy flow, pushing the market price from 32.9% to near 90%.
Whales aligned with the sharp price rise, driving $36K net flow into YES as market confidence in China’s growth band spikes.
Whale activity aligned with the sharp 24-hour rise, pushing net $42K into YES as market volume hit $82K.
