Breaking
Moonshot’s odds for best Chinese AI model by July 2026 jump 31.8pp on Polymarket
Whales contributed $4K net buying as YES price surged from 10.0% to 41.8%, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor odds surge 31.6 pp to 85.2% as whales back YES
Whale activity and price shifts aligned as Polymarket traders sharply raised the probability of Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 57.5 points despite whale buying
The market price for Iranian military action on July 13 dropped sharply from 90.5% to 33.0% while whale flow diverged by supporting YES positions.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor odds jump 15.8pp to 77.2% on Polymarket with $41K whale inflow
Whales and retail traders aligned to lift the probability of Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 amid $74K 24-hour volume.
Jul 15
Breaking
Moonshot AI model odds jump 21.9 pp to 32.1% with whale support
Moonshot’s chance at leading Chinese AI gains traction as whales add $4K net to YES in 24 hours
Jul 15
Breaking
John Healey’s odds as UK Defence Secretary in 2026 drop 22pp amid diverging whale flow
Polymarket’s market on John Healey’s UK Defence Secretary prospects fell from 69.0% to 47.0% despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 15
Breaking
Yvette Cooper’s odds as next UK Home Secretary jump 26.3 pp to 32.9% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the sharp price gain, signaling growing conviction in Cooper’s prospects for 2026.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor Odds Surge 27.9pp to 84.4% with Whale Support
Whale buying aligned with a 27.9 percentage point jump in YES price on Polymarket’s UK Chancellor 2026 question.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Home Secretary 2026 Market Collapses 42pp as Whale Flow Diverges
The probability for no next UK Home Secretary in 2026 plunged from 55.5% to 13.5% despite $7K whale buying, signaling conflicting signals between price and whale activity.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price plunges 43.5 pp despite $5K whale inflow
Polymarket’s contract on the UK Foreign Secretary question dropped from 56.0% to 12.5% in 24 hours while whales increased their YES bets, signaling a split between price moves and large trader activity.
Jul 15