Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 44.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 56.0% to 11.5% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 16
#%swhales
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 870 stories.
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds plunge 31pp to 58.9% despite $3K whale buy flow
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 24-hour drop in Alibaba's AI market odds, signaling conflicting trader sentiment.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 20.5 Points Despite $25K Whale Bets on YES
Whale activity diverged sharply from price action as Polymarket’s market on Iran’s MOU withdrawal fell from 32.0% to 11.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Mike Lindell’s 2026 Minnesota GOP Governor odds jump 17pp to 43.5% on Polymarket
Whales boosted bets on Lindell with $4K net inflow, driving YES price from 26.5% to 43.5% in 24 hours
Jul 16
Breaking
“No next UK Home Secretary in 2026?” YES price plunges 39.5pp despite $8K whale buying
Whales increased their YES bets even as the market sharply lowered the chance of no successor Home Secretary in 2026.
Jul 16
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor Odds Surge 50.1pp to 87% on $38K Whale Buying
Whale activity and price action aligned as Polymarket sharply repriced Mahmood’s chances in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Odds That UK Has No Next Home Secretary in 2026 Drop 29pp as Whale Flow Diverges
Polymarket’s market on the UK's Home Secretary vacancy saw a sharp 29.0 percentage-point fall in YES price, despite whales increasing their YES exposure.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf State Military Action Odds Drop 45pp Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket data shows a sharp 45 percentage point fall in the 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?' YES price, while whale flow diverged by supporting the YES side.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES odds jump 37pp to 90.5% in 24h
Whales backed the surge with a $52K net inflow, aligning strongly with the sharp price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
UK Home Secretary 2026 Market YES Price Drops 24.5pp Amid Whale Flow Divergence
While the YES price for no next UK Home Secretary in 2026 plunged from 52.5% to 28.0%, whale buying flowed counter to the price move.
Jul 16