Breaking
Odds for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 Access Extension Jump 31.5pp to 66.5% in 24h
Whale buying aligned with price surge as market reassesses likelihood of extension by July 19.
Jul 16
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 34pp as whale bets diverge
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 50.0% to 16.0% despite whale flows moving against the price shift.
Jul 16
Breaking
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next UK Chancellor? YES odds jump 54.4 pp in 24h
Whale buying of $39K aligns with a sharp rise in YES contract price to 87.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 16
Breaking
Ostium FDV Above $100M Market YES Price Drops 15.5 Points Amid Whale Support for NO
Whales aligned with a 15.5 pp decline in YES price, pushing odds from 29.5% to 14.0% on $6K 24h volume.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds drop 27.3 pp to 63.2% despite $3K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from price action as Polymarket sharply cut Alibaba’s probability for best Chinese AI model by July 2026.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 50.5pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract sees a sharp 50.5 percentage point drop in YES price amid contrasting whale activity.
Jul 16
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball odds jump 50.1pp to 90.4% as whales push $120K into YES
Lionel Messi’s chances at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball surged sharply alongside $120K whale buying, confirming the price move on Polymarket.
Jul 16
Breaking
Moonshot AI odds jump 21.3 points to 34% as whale buying backs price move
Whales added $4K net into YES contracts on Moonshot’s Chinese AI model market, matching a sharp 24-hour price rise from 12.6% to 34%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Europe’s 2026 FIFA World Cup Win Odds Drop 22pp Despite $157K Whale Buy-in
Whale activity on Polymarket diverges from sharp 24-hour price decline in Europe’s World Cup winning chances.
Jul 16
Breaking
China Q2 2026 GDP Growth Market Plunges 65.9pp to 0.10% Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Whales added $14K to YES contracts even as market price collapsed from 66.0% to near zero in 24 hours.
Jul 16