The YES contract on Polymarket asking whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 dropped sharply by 24.0 percentage points within 24 hours, falling from an estimated 66.5% to 42.5%. This sizable repricing signals a significant shift in market sentiment away from the likelihood of capture over this timeframe.
Interestingly, this price decline occurred despite whale activity moving in the opposite direction. Over the same 24-hour period, whales bought $51K worth of YES contracts while selling $24K, resulting in a net $27K inflow into YES positions. This divergence between the price move and whale flow marks a notable disconnect between large traders and the broader market tape.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume on this market was $38K, which is below the whale buy volume alone, highlighting the outsized role of whales in recent trading. The market’s lifetime volume stands at $237K, with 622 unique traders having participated so far.
Additionally, Polymarket’s current YES price of 42.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 29.0%, indicating some disparity between the off-chain market price and on-chain activity.
The combined picture of a sharp price drop amid strong whale buying suggests conflicting views on the contract’s trajectory. While the general market is repricing lower odds for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31, whales appear to be accumulating YES contracts, possibly anticipating a different outcome or a reversal of the recent sell-off.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +24.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 42.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 66.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 29.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $27K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $51K / $24K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 93 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $38K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 622 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.