Breaking
Houthis targeting shipping odds surge 25pp to 47% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in the probability that Houthis will successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026.
Jul 13
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 78 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 57pp to 84% on Polymarket in 24 hours
Whale trading aligned with rapid price jump, pushing odds from 27% to 84% on July 9 Gulf State conflict market
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 55.5pp to 93.0% in 24h on Polymarket
Whale bets moved in sync with a sharp rise in market odds ahead of July 14, 2026 deadline.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 66.5 pp to 91.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 66.5 percentage point rise in YES price to 91.5% ahead of July 14, 2026 deadline.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 50.5pp to 77.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, lifting the market from 27.0% to 77.5% certainty.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” odds fall 16.4 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's YES contract for Iran targeting shipping drops from 23.3% to 7.0% despite no whale buying, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate Exit Odds Drop 20pp Despite $20K Whale Buy
Whales poured $20K into YES contracts even as market odds tumbled from 49.5% to 29.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Odds Jump 25.5 Points to 52% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp price rise with $28K net buys, pushing the market over the 50% threshold.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds on Strait of Hormuz Transits July 31 Jump 23.2pp to 44.1%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise in the market for average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31? YES price jumps 28pp to 60.5%
Whales supported the surge with $26K net buys amid $47K total 24h volume, pushing odds sharply higher.
Jul 12