Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 37 stories.
Whales bought $11K into YES contracts even as the market price plunged from 65.0% to 23.6% in 24 hours, signaling a divergence between whale activity and price action.
Polymarket’s “Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?” contract fell from 89.5% to 32.9% despite $11K whale buying, signaling market skepticism.
Polymarket’s YES contract on Iran military action against a Gulf State fell sharply despite whale bets favoring the outcome.
Whales bought $7K of YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price dropped from 82.8% to 32.0% in 24 hours.
Whale buying of $12K in YES contracts contrasts with a sharp 33.0 percentage point drop in market odds for Iran military action on July 15.
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 22 percentage point decline in yes price to 58.5%, signaling market uncertainty.
Whale trading diverged from the sharp 25.5pp decline in Healey’s odds, signaling conflicting market signals.
Whale buying diverged sharply from a steep 64.5pp drop in the implied probability that there will be no next UK Home Secretary in 2026.
Despite a 46.9 percentage point drop in YES price to 7.5%, whales increased their YES bets by $4K, diverging from the market's sharp negative repricing.
Despite a nearly 50-point drop in YES price, whale activity increased buying, creating a rare price-flow divergence.
