The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding sharply declined by 41.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from an estimated 65.0% to 23.6%. This dramatic drop in YES price contrasts with whale activity, which saw a net inflow of $11K into YES contracts during the same period.
Whale buy volume reached $19K against $8K in sell volume, involving 72 unique whales. Despite the market’s strong downward repricing, these large traders increased their exposure to the YES outcome. The total 24-hour volume for this market was $19K, matching the whale buy volume, while lifetime market volume stands at $136K with 338 unique traders participating.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement suggests a split in sentiment: while retail or smaller traders pushed the price sharply lower, whales accumulated YES positions.
The combined picture of a 41.4 pp price drop alongside $11K net whale buying signals a complex market dynamic where large players are betting against the prevailing price trend.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +41.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 23.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 65.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $19K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 72 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $19K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 338 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.