Breaking
Claude Opus model release odds drop 28.5 pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as the market cut the chance of a July 22, 2026 release to 22%.
Jul 20
#%sprice action
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 37 stories.
Breaking
“Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” YES contract jumps 36.1 pp to 98.2%
Whales drove a $719K net inflow into YES as Polymarket odds surged sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 19
Breaking
Messi’s 2026 World Cup goal contributions bet drops 54.2pp amid whale buying divergence
Despite whales adding $4K to YES contracts, the market price for Messi’s top goal contributions at 2026 FIFA World Cup plunged from 61.7% to 7.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 19
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 28.5 Points in 24 Hours
Despite a sharp decline in YES price to 18.0%, whale flow diverged by not supporting the move.
Jul 19
Breaking
Mbappe Top Scorer Market Jumps 52pp to 93.5% on $484K Whale Inflow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability sharply higher in a single day, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 18
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance contract jumps 47.2 points to 72.2% on Polymarket
Whales pushed $5K into YES as the market sharply repriced Max Martin’s presence at Taylor Swift’s wedding.
Jul 18
Breaking
Houthis shipping attack odds plunge 38.6pp as whale flow diverges on Polymarket
Polymarket’s “Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?” contract saw a sharp price drop despite no whale buying support for YES.
Jul 18
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds drop 15pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?” market saw its YES price fall from 76.5% to 61.5% amid $59K volume, while whale flow diverged by supporting YES positions.
Jul 18
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds drop 18pp despite $6K whale buying
Whales increased YES bets by $6K even as market probability for Max Martin attending Taylor Swift’s wedding fell sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 17
Breaking
“Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?” YES price drops 19.7 pp despite $6K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from price action as Polymarket’s odds for Max Martin attending Swift’s wedding fell sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 17