Breaking
Strait of Hormuz transit odds jump 17.6pp to 43.1% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the price surge as the market reassessed the likelihood of low transit traffic on July 31.
Jul 12
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Weather
San Francisco Weather Forecasts Diverge by 15.3°F Amid $75K Market Volume
Wide forecast spread for San Francisco highlights market activity in a $388K daily weather vertical.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Contract Jumps 24.5 Points to 56% on Polymarket
Whales added $27K to YES positions as market odds on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Anthropic IPO odds plunge 24.5 points as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite $4K whale buying, highlighting tension between price moves and whale activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack contract YES price plunges 22pp to 1.5% despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from a sharp market sell-off as Polymarket traders slashed odds on Iran abstaining from attacks by Sunday.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 31pp to 63.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $26K into YES as the contract nearly doubled in price within 24 hours, signaling a sharp shift in market sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 15pp to 30.5% despite $47K whale bets
Whale trading flow diverged from price action as market odds fell sharply on Polymarket in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 92pp to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $11K net buying as the market price jumped from 2.5% to 94.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Whales
$198K Whale Bets on Norway to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Odds
Large investors direct $198K net into Norway YES while market prices chance at 0.05%, highlighting a divergence between whale flow and crowd consensus.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 25.2 pp despite whale buying
Whale bets on Iran military action rose while market prices sharply dropped from 53.5% to 28.3% in 24 hours.
Jul 12