The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding dropped sharply by 40.1 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 80.2% to 40.2%. This significant repricing occurred even as whale investors collectively added $11K net into YES contracts during the same period.
Whales bought $20K worth of YES contracts but also sold $9K, resulting in a net positive flow that diverges from the market’s steep decline. A total of 73 unique whales participated, contributing to a 24-hour Polymarket volume of $21K on this question, with lifetime market volume reaching $132K and 309 unique traders overall.
This divergence between whale activity and price movement suggests that while the broader market sharply lowered the odds of Max Martin attending the wedding, large investors were accumulating YES positions. The conflicting signals between price and whale flow highlight uncertainty or differing interpretations of the event’s likelihood among market participants. The combined data illustrates a contested market view rather than a consensus shift.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +40.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 80.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 40.2% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $20K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 73 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 309 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.