Whales
$936K Net Whale Bets on France to Win 2026 World Cup Defy 39.8% Market Odds
Whale buying on France’s World Cup victory contrasts with current market pricing, highlighting divergent sentiment ahead of event close.
Jul 10
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 24.1 pp to 3.9% amid divergent whale flow
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?' market dropped sharply despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 10
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US bank failure by July 31? Polymarket YES price jumps 80.1 points in 24h
Whale activity and market prices moved in tandem as odds surged from 18.0% to 98.1% in a single day.
Jul 10
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Google’s Math AI model odds jump 33.5 points to 51% as whales back the move
A sharp rise in Polymarket’s “best Math AI model” contract saw whale buying reinforce a big shift in sentiment over 24 hours.
Jul 10
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Russia entering Shevchenko by Sept 30 jumps 18.1 pp to 97.6% on Polymarket
Whales added a net $7K to YES as contract price surged, signaling strong alignment between big bets and market odds.
Jul 10
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Iran military action odds plunge 24pp despite whale buying on Polymarket
YES contract for Iran military action on July 10 dropped from 27.5% to 3.5% while whales increased exposure.
Jul 10
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OpenAI GPT model debut odds plunge 78.8 points to 7.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting market signals on GPT model performance by 2026-end.
Jul 10
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Google Math AI Model Odds Jump 40pp to 58% on Whale Support
Whales contributed $6K net buying as the market sharply repriced Google’s lead in Math AI by July 2026.
Jul 10
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YES price on next xAI Grok model debut drops 60.1pp to 8.4% amid divergent whale flow
Whale activity diverged sharply from a 60.1 percentage point plunge in YES price, signaling conflicting signals on xAI’s Grok model performance odds.
Jul 10
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GPT Model Market Sees 71.2-Point Drop in YES Price Despite Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from falling prices as the predicted GPT debut score market plunged from 86.0% to 14.8% in 24 hours.
Jul 10