The probability that the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, surged 19.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from 34.5% to 54.0% on Polymarket. This significant repricing reflects a sharp increase in market optimism about the model’s performance.
Supporting the price move, whale activity aligned with the upward trend, contributing a net $11K in buying volume into YES contracts. Whales executed $16K in buy orders against $5K in sells over the same period, involving 43 unique whale traders. This contrasts with the total 24-hour volume on the market, which was $7K, indicating that whales drove most of the recent trading activity.
The lifetime volume for this market stands at $45K with 168 unique traders participating, showing a moderately active interest in this question about AI development benchmarks. The combined price increase and whale flow suggest growing conviction among larger traders that OpenAI’s next GPT iteration will achieve or surpass the 1480 score threshold by the end of 2026.
The tandem rise in both price and whale buying activity points to a coordinated market reassessment rather than isolated speculation, making this market a focal point for tracking expectations around AI progress milestones on Polymarket.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2659165 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 54.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 34.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 54.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $16K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 43 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 168 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.