Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Plunge 75pp Despite Whale Buying
Whales added $23K to YES contracts even as the market’s implied probability dropped from 81.5% to 6.6%.
Jul 17
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
NVIDIA second-largest market cap odds jump 15 pp to 24.5% with whale buying
Whales contributed $4K net into YES contracts as Polymarket traders sharply repriced NVIDIA's market cap prospect.
Jul 16
Breaking
Trump China interference accusation odds jump 16 points to 78% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked with price surge as market reevaluates the likelihood of a Trump accusation by mid-July.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will a Chinese company have a top 10 AI model by year-end?” YES jumps 17.2pp to 99.2%
Polymarket’s price surge aligns with whale activity, confirming near-certain odds in a $6K volume market.
Jul 16
Breaking
Polymarket’s Iran Gulf military action contract drops 35.5pp as whale flow diverges
YES price for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16? plunged from 73.0% to 37.5%, while whale activity moved against the price shift.
Jul 16
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension YES Price Jumps 21pp to 74% with Whale Support
Whale buying aligned with a 21 percentage point rise in odds for Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 19, reflecting growing market conviction.
Jul 16
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch odds plunge 78.8pp to 2.8% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from market price, with $15K net flow into YES amid a steep drop in launch probability.
Jul 16
Breaking
Bitcoin $67,500 July Contract Sees 18pp Drop in YES Price Amid Divergent Whale Activity
Polymarket’s “Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?” contract YES price fell from 54.5% to 36.5% despite whales not supporting the move.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?” YES price jumps 34.5 pp to 79.5%
Polymarket’s data shows whale activity aligned with a sharp increase in odds for a Trump accusation by July 16, signaling growing market conviction.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 43pp as whale flow resists price drop
Polymarket’s YES contract on Iran military action against a Gulf State fell sharply despite whale bets favoring the outcome.
Jul 16