Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price plunges 75.5pp despite $15K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from market price as Polymarket’s odds for Starship launch by July 17 collapsed from 82.0% to 6.5%.
Jul 16
#%spolymarket
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 July Market Slides 23.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES contract for Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July dropped from 67.5% to 44.0%, while whales added $6K net into YES, signaling a split between price and big-money bets.
Jul 16
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Crash 76pp Despite $13K Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 76.0 percentage point drop in the YES price on SpaceX’s Starship launch market.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?” YES price plunges 64.5pp to 6.3% amid whale divergence
Polymarket’s contract on Israeli parliament dissolution saw a sharp 64.5 percentage point drop in YES odds, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Jul 16
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Collapse 72pp on Polymarket Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?” market dropped from 72.0% to 0.05% YES price, while whale activity diverged from the price move.
Jul 16
Whales
$299K Whale Bet Defies 0.25% Market Odds on July 2026 Fed Rate Hike
@JAHODA places a large $299K wager against consensus on a rare 50+ bps Fed hike after July 2026 meeting.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 42pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged sharply from price as YES contract on Iran Gulf military action dropped from 73.0% to 31.0%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Israeli parliament dissolution odds plunge 58.7 points to 9.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from price drop as market slashed chances of dissolution by July 16
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?” YES price jumps 23.5 pp to 77.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in optimism for Claude Fable 5’s paid-plan extension, pushing Polymarket’s YES price from 54.0% to 77.5%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Trump-China interference accusation market jumps 29pp to 75% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 29.0 percentage point rise in YES price to 75.0%, signaling strong conviction on a Trump accusation by July 16.
Jul 16