Breaking
Next Grok model debut odds plunge 63.5pp to 3.0% despite whale buying
Whales increased net YES exposure even as market price for xAI’s Grok model score plummeted, signaling conflicting signals among traders.
Jul 10
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
25pp Surge in Odds the 2026 United Left Primary Will Be Canceled as Whales Back the Move
Polymarket’s YES price jumps from 49.5% to 74.5% on $8K whale inflows, signaling sharp repricing on French election primary cancellation.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mbappé’s World Cup Goal Contributions Contract Jumps 46pp to 78.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices aligned as confidence surged sharply in Mbappé leading in goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Jul 10
Breaking
Anthropic Math AI odds tumble 31.5 pp to 37% despite $3K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from sharply lower market prices, signaling conflicting views on Anthropic’s AI model prospects.
Jul 10
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Grok model debut plunges 60pp despite whale opposition
Whale trades diverged from a sharp 24-hour drop in odds for xAI’s next Grok model scoring 1460 by end-2026.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?” YES odds drop 21pp amid whale selling
Ethereum price dip odds on Polymarket fell from 84.0% to 63.0% despite whale selling, signaling trader skepticism.
Jul 10
Breaking
Odds for BBL Esports as Last VCT EMEA Team at EWC 2026 Surge 77.4pp to 100%
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, pushing the market from 22.6% to certainty on Polymarket.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds drop 21pp to 47.5% amid whale-flow divergence
Polymarket’s YES price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply despite $16K whale net buying, revealing a split between price action and large trader behavior.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 27.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” contract fell sharply despite whale activity opposing the move.
Jul 10
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds jump 19pp to 61% with $55K whale inflow
Whale activity and price movement aligned as Polymarket sharply repriced the chance of talks by July 31, 2026.
Jul 10