The Polymarket contract asking whether the next Grok model from xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse 60.0 percentage points in 24 hours, dropping from 66.5% to 6.5% as of July 10, 2026.
This steep decline in market-implied probability ran counter to whale trading activity, which diverged from the price move rather than confirming it. Despite the plunge in YES price, whale flow did not mirror the bearish repricing, indicating large traders were net neutral or possibly supportive of the YES outcome during this period.
The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question reached $9K, reflecting moderate trading interest amid the sharp shift in perceived likelihood. The disconnect between whale flow and price suggests the broader market was rapidly adjusting its expectations on the Grok model’s performance, while major players held a different view or maintained positions.
This divergence signals tension in market sentiment, with retail or smaller traders driving down odds sharply even as whale activity failed to follow suit. The combined price and flow data highlight a contested outlook on the model’s debut score, underscoring uncertainty about xAI’s next Grok release among prediction market participants.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +60.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 6.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 66.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.