Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 68pp to 87% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price action aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of talks by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Whales
Whales Load $356K on France to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 38.9% Market Price
Whale buying diverges from market odds as $115.47M traded on World Cup Winner event with eight days to close.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price falls 17.5 pp amid whale buying divergence
Whale flow of $108K into YES contrasts with a sharp 17.5 percentage point drop in contract price to 30.5%, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Military Action Probability Jumps 39.5 Points to 84.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds for Iran taking military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds for No Next UK Culture Secretary in 2026 Jump 38.5pp to 50% on Polymarket
Whales backed the sharp rally in the market, adding $4K net to YES as prices doubled in a day.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 71pp to 90% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned sharply as market reprices the likelihood of a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Anthropic’s Best Math AI Model Odds Surge 31.5pp to 85.5% on Polymarket
Whales pushed $3K net into YES as market odds jumped sharply, aligning flow with price despite a wide on-chain price gap.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran blockade market drops 15pp despite $16K whale buying
Whale buying flows diverged from a sharp 15pp fall in the Polymarket contract’s YES price, signaling mixed signals on US action against Iran.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds jump 16pp to 39% as whale flow backs move
Polymarket’s 'US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?' contract surged from 23% to 39% in 24 hours with aligned whale activity.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price falls 18pp as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $26K in YES contracts while Polymarket’s price dropped from 58.0% to 40.0%, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 13