Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 25.7 points to 47.9% with whale support
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” market sees price and whale flow rise in tandem, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 13
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 63pp to 82% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as the market sharply repriced expectations for a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES odds jump 38.5 pp to 78%
Whale trading backed a sharp 24-hour surge in the probability of Iranian military action in the Gulf, pushing prices from 39.5% to 78%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 drop 15.5 pp to 40% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverges from price move as market odds fall sharply in 24 hours on Kostyantynivka capture question
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 58pp to 77% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing odds for a diplomatic meeting up from 19% to 77% in 24 hours
Jul 13
Breaking
US blockade on Iran by July 31? YES odds drop 21 pp despite $101K whale buying
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 21-point drop in YES price, signaling conflicting forces in the market.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 62pp to 81% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the sharp 62 percentage point rise in odds for a meeting by July 14, 2026, signaling strong conviction in the shift.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 59pp to 78% ahead of July 14 deadline
Whale activity and price shifts aligned as Polymarket reevaluated the likelihood of a meeting by mid-July 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 65pp to 84% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked with price surge as market sharply reprices likelihood of meeting by July 14, 2026
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds for US blockade on Iran by July 31 drop 25.5pp despite $105K whale bets
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 25.5pp decline in YES price, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 13