The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 dropped sharply by 17.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, from 48.0% to 30.5% on Polymarket. This significant repricing occurred despite whales net buying $108K into YES contracts during the same period, creating a notable divergence between price action and whale flow.
Whales accounted for $194K in buy volume against $85K in sell volume across 216 unique traders, while total Polymarket volume for this question reached $166K in the last day. The lifetime market volume stands at $1.14M with 1,137 unique traders participating overall.
This divergence in whale flow and price movement suggests conflicting signals: while large traders increased their exposure to a blockade announcement, the broader market sharply downgraded the odds.
The combination of a steep price decline alongside substantial whale buying highlights a complex market dynamic. It signals a contested outlook on the likelihood of a US blockade announcement by the July 31 deadline, reflecting nuanced sentiment among Polymarket participants.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +17.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 48.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $108K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $194K / $85K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 216 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $166K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,137 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.