Breaking
“Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?” YES price jumps 25.7 points to 96.7%
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in odds, pushing market conviction higher in a single day.
Jul 17
#%smarket flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 35 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16? YES odds drop 37.5pp to 34.0%
Polymarket sees a sharp 24-hour decline in odds amid diverging whale activity on Iran's Gulf State military action market.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 32.5pp despite whale flow divergence
Polymarket's market on Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13 dropped from 48.0% to 15.5% in 24 hours as whale bets diverged from the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood’s 2026 Chancellor odds jump 51pp to 57.4% with whale buying aligned
Whale activity and price moved in tandem as confidence surged sharply in Mahmood’s chances on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 52.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract sees a sharp drop in YES price amid $14K volume, with whale bets diverging from market direction.
Jul 15
Breaking
China Q2 2026 GDP Growth Odds Surge 59.2pp to 99.6% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour price jump with $15K net flow into YES contracts, confirming the market's rapid repricing.
Jul 15
Whales
Whales Add $494K to France 2026 World Cup Win Bets Despite 39.1% Market Price
Net whale inflow into France’s 2026 World Cup win market sharply contrasts with its sub-40% market-implied probability.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 38.5 points to 78% on Polymarket
Whale buying and a 38.5 pp price surge pushed the market sharply higher to indicate growing confidence in a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf State Military Action Odds Surge 38.8pp to 54.9% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moves aligned as the market sharply repriced likelihood of Iran military action on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Odds Surge 18.1pp to 21.8% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in probability for Iran targeting shipping on July 11, pushing the market higher alongside increased volume.
Jul 12