The probability that China’s GDP growth in Q2 2026 will be between 4.3% and 4.6% jumped 59.2 percentage points in 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 40.4% to 99.6%. This dramatic shift in odds was matched by whale activity, with 53 unique whales contributing $24K in buy volume and $9K in sell volume, resulting in a net flow of $15K into YES contracts.
Despite Polymarket’s YES price now nearing certainty, the Polydata on-chain mid-price overview remains at 34.7%, indicating a significant divergence between the platform’s market price and on-chain data. The 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket was $12K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $61K and a total of 275 unique traders participating.
The alignment of whale flow with the price increase reinforces the conviction behind this rapid repricing. Whale investors, often considered influential in shaping market sentiment, have decisively supported the surge in likelihood that China’s GDP growth will fall within the stated range.
| Market | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2009764 |
| 24h price change | +59.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 40.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 34.7% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $15K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $24K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 53 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 275 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.