Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 17pp to 48.5% with whale buying aligned
Whales added $22K to YES in a $48K volume surge as Polymarket prices rose sharply.
Jul 12
#%smarket flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 35 stories.
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? YES price drops 27pp in 24h amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s YES contract for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales buying $41K into YES, signaling a split between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 12
Breaking
Miami median home value odds jump 23pp to 59.5% as whales buy $4K in YES
Polymarket’s Miami home value market rises sharply with whale buying aligning to price surge, signaling increased confidence in the outcome.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack contract YES price plunges 16.7pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s market on Iran not attacking ships in Hormuz by Sunday dropped from 18.0% to 1.4% even as whales increased YES positions.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 38pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite whale activity moving against the decline.
Jul 10
Breaking
Next Grok model debut odds plunge 63.5pp to 3.0% despite whale buying
Whales increased net YES exposure even as market price for xAI’s Grok model score plummeted, signaling conflicting signals among traders.
Jul 10
Breaking
Bitcoin $60K dip odds fall 15pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?” market sees YES price drop from 60.0% to 45.0% despite whale activity moving opposite direction.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action odds drop 37.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket's 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?' market saw a sharp price fall despite whale activity moving against the trend.
Jul 10
Breaking
Count Binface’s second place odds fall 17.5 points despite whale buying
Price on Count Binface’s Clacton by-election finish slid from 86.5% to 69.0% as whale activity diverged from the market move.
Jul 10
Breaking
Count Binface’s chances for second place in Clacton by-election drop 29 pp in 24 hours
Despite a sharp 29 pp fall in YES price, whale trading diverged from the market move in the last day.
Jul 10