The market on whether the US will announce a halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24 saw its YES contract price plunge 27.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 36.5% to 9.5% on Polymarket. This sharp decline in odds reflects a significant repricing of the likelihood of a US halt in offensive operations within the specified timeframe.
Notably, whale flow diverged from the price movement, indicating a disconnect between large traders’ behavior and the market tape. While the YES price dropped sharply, whale activity did not support this bearish turn, suggesting that large traders reduced their net exposure to YES contracts rather than increasing it. This divergence between whale flow and price movement signals some uncertainty or conflicting views among high-volume participants.
Polymarket recorded $26K in volume over the past 24 hours on this market, underscoring active trading despite the sharp odds shift.
This combined picture of a steep price drop accompanied by opposing whale flow points to a nuanced market stance on the US halting Iran offensive operations by July 24. It highlights that while market consensus shifted toward a lower probability, large traders are not fully aligned with that move, keeping the market’s outlook complex.
| Market | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2967836 |
| 24h price change | +27.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 9.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $26K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.