Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 45.5 points to 79% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices climbed in tandem, signaling a sharp reassessment of conflict risk on July 13.
Jul 13
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” odds fall 16.4 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's YES contract for Iran targeting shipping drops from 23.3% to 7.0% despite no whale buying, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price climbs 37.5pp to 82%
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply reprices likelihood of conflict in Gulf.
Jul 13
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 21pp to 45.5% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 21-point increase in the YES price with $31K net inflow, driving the market's fastest 24-hour reprice.
Jul 13
Breaking
‘Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?’ odds drop 15.5 pp despite $129K whale inflow
Polymarket’s YES price for a US blockade on Iran fell sharply from 45.5% to 30.0% in 24 hours, while whales bought $129K worth of contracts, signaling a divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 13
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on US Iran blockade falls 17pp despite $131K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from the sharp drop in odds on US blockade announcement by July 31, signaling mixed sentiment.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price drops 23pp despite $144K whale buying
Whale buying of $144K in YES contracts contrasts sharply with a 23.0 percentage point decline in the market’s odds over 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds for US Iran blockade by July 31 fall 22pp despite $154K whale buy-in
Whale flow diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket’s Iran blockade market.
Jul 13
Whales
Whale Bets $299K Against Consensus on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalizing by July 15
A $299K bet from experienced trader @Dafu0715 backs a longshot outcome priced at 12.5%, joining a $1.06M whale buying wave on the market.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? YES price jumps 21.8pp to 34.1%
Whale trading aligned with the 22-point surge in odds, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 13