The Polymarket prediction for “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?” saw a sharp decline in the YES contract price by 15.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 29.0% to 13.5%. This significant repricing signals a major shift in market sentiment against the likelihood of Iran announcing such a withdrawal by the deadline.
Interestingly, whale trading activity diverged from the price movement during this period. Despite the YES price falling, whales collectively bought $26K worth of YES contracts and sold only $6K, resulting in a net inflow of $21K into YES positions.
Overall market volume for the contract in the last 24 hours was $30K, with 61 unique whale traders contributing to these flows. Since inception, the market has seen $259K in total volume from 270 unique traders, indicating sustained interest in this geopolitical event.
The combined picture of sharply falling odds and whale buying activity points to a complex market dynamic where large investors are betting differently than the general market consensus.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820206 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 13.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 29.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 13.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $21K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $26K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 61 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $30K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 270 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.