The probability that the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold through July 31 has surged by 29.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 32.5% to 61.5%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment about the conflict’s near-term stability.
Whale flow tracked this movement closely, with large traders increasing exposure to the YES side, confirming the price move rather than opposing it. This alignment between whale activity and the tape adds conviction to the market’s reassessment of ceasefire prospects.
Trading volume over the last day reached $63K, indicating solid liquidity and interest around this geopolitical question. The combined rise in price and whale support suggests market participants are increasingly betting on a continuation of the ceasefire through the end of July.
This synchronized price and flow action highlights how prediction markets can swiftly incorporate new information or sentiment shifts, providing a real-time barometer of expectations on conflict developments.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +29.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 61.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $63K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.