Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 19.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES price for Iran MOU withdrawal by August 15 fell sharply despite whale buying, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 16
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 39.5 points despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract fell sharply even as whales increased YES exposure, signaling diverging market views.
Jul 16
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 28pp to 66.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp 24-hour rise in odds for extending Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 19.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds drop 30.1 pp to 60.2% despite $3K whale buy flow
Whales bought $3K of YES contracts while market price fell sharply, signaling conflicting signals on Alibaba’s AI leadership chances.
Jul 16
Whales
$1.53M net whale flow into YES on England winning 2026 World Cup contrasts 0.05% market price
Whales have bought $5.45M against $2.44M sold in 24 hours despite a near-zero market-implied probability for England's victory.
Jul 16
Breaking
South America World Cup 2026 YES Odds Surge 23pp to 42.5% on Whale Buying
Whales contributed $47K net buying as the market doubled its probability for CONMEBOL winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 44.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 56.0% to 11.5% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model market falls 25.5pp as whales buy $3K into YES
Polymarket’s “best Chinese AI model” contract dropped from 90.0% to 64.5% despite whale buying, highlighting a split between price action and large trader flow.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 52.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?' market dropped from 63.5% to 11.0% despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds plunge 31pp to 58.9% despite $3K whale buy flow
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 24-hour drop in Alibaba's AI market odds, signaling conflicting trader sentiment.
Jul 16