Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Whales bought $7K into YES even as market odds dropped from 51.0% to 17.5% in 24 hours, signaling a split between price action and large trader bets.
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 50.0% to 16.0% despite whale flows moving against the price shift.
Whale buying of $39K aligns with a sharp rise in YES contract price to 87.5% on Polymarket.
Whale flow diverged from price as YES contracts fell from 94.5% to 73.0% amid $23K volume in 24 hours.
Whales moved in sync with a sharp 49 percentage point rise in odds for Mahmood to become UK Chancellor in 2026, pushing market prices from 33.9% to 82.9%.
YES contract on Iran military action against a Gulf State fell from 57.0% to 15.5% despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Whales aligned with a 15.5 pp decline in YES price, pushing odds from 29.5% to 14.0% on $6K 24h volume.
Whale investors added $12K net to YES as Polymarket odds on Ethereum hitting $2,000 rose sharply to 67.5%.
Whale activity diverged from price action as Polymarket sharply cut Alibaba’s probability for best Chinese AI model by July 2026.
Whale activity and price movement aligned as the market sharply reprices the likelihood of a Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access extension by July 19.
