Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 49.1pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” YES price fell sharply despite whales buying $14K net into YES contracts.
Jul 19
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Odds for Claude Opus Model Release by July 22, 2026, Drop 25pp Amid Whale Divergence
YES price on Polymarket slid from 57.5% to 32.5% in 24 hours while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 19
Breaking
Kareem Allam’s 2026 Vancouver mayoral odds drop 28.5pp despite $5K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 28.5 percentage point fall in the YES price, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 19
Weather
London weather forecasts diverge by 1.8°C with $25K traded, Buenos Aires leads volume at $36K
London's forecast spread is the widest across 52 active weather markets, highlighting uncertainty amid $164K total daily volume.
Jul 19
Breaking
Alibaba AI model market jumps 25.9pp as whales back YES with $4K net flow
Polymarket’s odds for Alibaba leading Chinese AI by July 2026 surged alongside aligned whale buying activity.
Jul 19
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 47.5 points as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $11K in YES contracts even as the market price fell sharply from 51.5% to 4.0%.
Jul 19
Breaking
Mbappe top goalscorer odds jump 51 pp to 92.5% on $579K whale bets
Whale activity and broader market volume surged alongside a dramatic shift in Mbappe’s World Cup scoring market.
Jul 19
Breaking
US withdrawal from MOU talks by August 31? YES odds jump 17pp to 40.5%
Whale activity backed the sharp 24-hour price rise, lifting the market's probability from 23.5% to 40.5%.
Jul 19
Breaking
Odds for Claude Opus Model Release by July 22, 2026 Drop 28pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s question on Claude Opus release sees a sharp 28pp decline in YES price despite neutral whale activity, highlighting a split between retail momentum and large traders.
Jul 19
Breaking
Max Martin Wedding Odds Jump 20.4 Points on Polymarket with Whale Support
Max Martin’s attendance at Taylor Swift’s wedding now priced at 59.6% after a strong 24-hour surge backed by whale buying.
Jul 19