The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding surged by 20.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 39.2% to 59.6% on Polymarket. This significant repricing coincided with whale buying activity totaling a net $3K in YES contracts, confirming the market’s upward move.
During this period, 57 unique whales participated, collectively buying $7K worth of YES contracts while selling $3K, signaling a clear tilt toward increased confidence in Max Martin’s attendance. The total 24-hour volume on this market was $7K, matching the whale buy volume and indicating that larger traders drove the price shift.
With a lifetime market volume of $149K and 409 unique traders overall, this market has seen steady engagement. The alignment of whale flows with the price surge suggests institutional or large-scale traders are reinforcing the sentiment shift rather than pushing against it.
This combined price and whale activity points to a growing conviction in Max Martin’s likelihood of attending the event, reflecting a notable change in market expectations over the past day.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +20.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 59.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 39.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 59.6% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 57 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 409 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.