The market “Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?” saw its YES contract price surge 17.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 23.5% to 40.5% as of July 19, 2026. This sharp repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment toward this outcome.
Supporting the price move, whale activity aligned with the upward trend, indicating that large traders increased their net positions in YES contracts. This concurrence between price direction and whale flow suggests conviction behind the rising odds rather than a mere speculative blip.
Polymarket recorded $12K in volume on this contract during the same 24-hour window, showing modest but consistent trading interest as the probability shifted significantly. The combined effect of rising prices and whale backing signals a meaningful reevaluation of the likelihood that the US will announce withdrawal from the MOU negotiations by the end of August.
Such a substantial increase in YES odds in a single day underscores how rapidly market expectations can adjust in response to emerging information or sentiment shifts. The alignment of whale flow with the price move adds weight to the market’s revised outlook on this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849008 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.