The market on whether Kareem Allam will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election saw a dramatic shift as the YES price plunged 28.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 51.5% to 23.0%. This move reflects a significant repricing by traders betting on Allam’s chances less favorably than a day ago.
Despite this steep drop in implied probability, whale trading activity diverged from the price trend. Large traders collectively bought $12K worth of YES contracts and sold $7K, resulting in a net $5K inflow into YES positions. This divergence between whale flow and the market price suggests differing interpretations among influential traders compared to the broader market sentiment.
Overall Polymarket volume for this contract was $13K in the last 24 hours, with lifetime volume at $52K and 277 unique traders having participated. The 62 unique whales involved in the last day’s activity indicate a concentrated but active presence of major players.
The contrasting signals—sharp price decline paired with net whale buying—highlight uncertainty around Allam’s electoral prospects as perceived by different market segments. This split flow and price action underscore a complex market view rather than a uniform consensus on the candidate’s chances.
| Market | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822538 |
| 24h price change | +28.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 23.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 23.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $12K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 62 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 277 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.