Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17pp as whale flow diverges from price
Whales added $50K to YES contracts even as Polymarket price for a July 2026 meeting fell sharply from 27.5% to 10.5%.
Jul 11
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Next GPT model debut odds plunge 86.4pp to 0.80% on Polymarket amid whale divergence
Polymarket’s “Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?” contract dropped sharply despite whales avoiding YES bets.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 15.6 Points as Whale Flow Aligns
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” contract doubled its odds in 24 hours amid coordinated whale buying.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 25pp despite $51K whale buy flow
Whale purchases of $51K into YES contracts contrast with a sharp 25 percentage point decline in Polymarket odds for a US-Iran meeting by July 17, 2026.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 22.1 Points to 32% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price moves aligned as the odds of Iranian military action against a Gulf State jumped sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds plunge 25pp as whale buying diverges from price
Whales bought $56K into YES contracts despite a sharp 25.0pp drop in odds over 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Breaking
Google’s Math AI model odds jump 35.5 points to 48% amid whale buying
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in YES price on Polymarket’s Google Math AI market.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Jump 23.2 Points as Whale Bets Align with Rally
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?' market surged from 12.8% to 35.9% on $34K volume with whale activity confirming the price move.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Jump 15.2 Points to 29.5% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price gains moved in tandem as market reassesses likelihood of Gulf conflict on July 9.
Jul 11
Breaking
“US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?” YES price dropped 15 pp despite $51K whale inflow
Whales bought $51K into YES contracts while the market price plunged from 60.5% to 45.5%, signaling a divergence between whale activity and price direction.
Jul 11