Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 33pp to 46.9% on Polymarket amid aligned whale bets
Whales pushed the “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market higher as the YES price surged from 13.9% to 46.9% in 24 hours.
Jul 11
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 40.5 Points as Whale Bets Support Rally
The probability of Iran taking military action against a Gulf State on July 9 rose sharply to 54.5%, backed by aligned whale trading.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? YES odds jump 49.1 pp to 62.9%
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” contract saw a sharp rise in odds with whale activity confirming the move.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 23.2 Points to 37% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with the sharp 24-hour rise in odds for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 29.9 points to 43.3% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” contract saw coordinated price and whale flow gains, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 25.7 points to 39.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price gains aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Iran striking a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 11
Whales
Whales Back Switzerland at 1.7% in World Cup 2026 Market Despite Low Odds
$383K net whale flow into YES contrasts with the market's 1.7% implied probability in a $123.48M volume market.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 41.5pp to 54.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp jump in probability for Iran's July 9 Gulf military action market, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 11
Breaking
Russia entry into Shevchenko market jumps 15.2 pp to 97.7% as whales add $21K
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing the market closer to certainty despite on-chain price discrepancy.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” YES price falls 47.9 pp despite $9K whale inflow
Whales bought $10K of YES contracts even as the market price plunged from 50.0% to 2.1%, signaling a divergence between price and whale activity.
Jul 11